The Smart Player's Guide: Calculating True Bonus Value

Clara Byrne reveals the mathematical approach to evaluating casino bonuses and finding genuine value.

Understanding True Bonus Value

Not all bonuses are created equal. In this guide, I'll show you how to calculate the real value of any casino bonus offer.

The Expected Value Formula

Expected Value = (Bonus Amount × RTP) - (Wagering Requirement × Bonus Amount × House Edge)

For a €100 bonus with 35x wagering on slots (96% RTP): - Theoretical return: €100 × 0.96 × 35 = €3,360 - Total wagering needed: €3,500 - Expected loss: €140 (4% of €3,500) - Net EV: €100 - €140 = -€40

When Bonuses Become Profitable

Low wagering requirements (under 25x) can turn bonuses positive: - 20x wagering on €100 = €2,000 wagered - House edge loss: €80 - Net gain: +€20

Key Factors to Evaluate

1. Wagering requirements - Lower is always better
2. Game restrictions - Can you play high-RTP games?
3. Time limits - Rushed wagering leads to poor decisions
4. Max bet limits - €5 max is standard
5. Withdrawal caps - Some bonuses limit your winnings

My Top Value Picks

Look for cashback bonuses with 1x wagering—these almost always offer genuine value.