Six Nations 2026: Complete Betting Guide and Ireland Analysis

Ireland enter the 2026 Six Nations as favourites. Declan Murphy breaks down every angle of the Championship betting markets.

Six Nations 2026: Ireland's Path to Glory

The Six Nations returns, and Ireland face the delicious pressure of favouritism. Andy Farrell's squad enters the tournament as defending champions with legitimate Grand Slam aspirations. But Six Nations history teaches humility—anything can happen across five weekends of Championship rugby.

Ireland's Campaign Analysis

Tournament Odds: Ireland 6/5 favourites

Ireland's squad depth has never been stronger. Johnny Sexton's retirement initially seemed catastrophic, but Jack Crowley has exceeded expectations. The pack remains formidable—Tadhg Furlong, Dan Sheehan, Caelan Doris, and Josh van der Flier form the core of arguably world rugby's best forward unit.

Key Fixtures:

Round 1: Ireland vs England (Dublin) - Opening at the Aviva against the old enemy. England have rebuilt impressively under Steve Borthwick. This match sets the tournament's tone. Ireland 4/9 favourites.

Round 3: France vs Ireland (Paris) - The pivotal fixture. Stade de France on a Saturday evening is rugby's most hostile environment for visitors. France 5/6 favourites at home, but Ireland have won there recently.

Round 5: Ireland vs Wales (Dublin) - The likely finale. If Ireland arrive with Grand Slam on the line, the Aviva will be electric.

France: The Danger Men

France (13/8) remain the team most likely to derail Irish hopes. Antoine Dupont is transcendent—the world's best player drives everything Les Bleus do. Romain Ntamack's return from injury adds creative brilliance.

French inconsistency remains their weakness. They can beat anyone on their day; they can also lose to anyone when concentration lapses. That Round 3 clash in Paris will tell us everything.

England: Rebuilding with Intent

England (9/2) have rebuilt impressively. Marcus Smith orchestrates with growing confidence, while their pack has rediscovered its physicality. They won't win the tournament, but they'll influence who does.

Scotland: Gregor's Last Dance?

Scotland (12/1) under Gregor Townsend continue punching above their weight. Finn Russell remains box-office, and the pack now matches the backs' flair. They'll beat at least one team they shouldn't—potentially including Ireland at Murrayfield.

Wales and Italy

Wales (25/1) are in genuine transition. Warren Gatland's third stint hasn't sparked the hoped-for revival. They'll compete fiercely but likely end mid-table.

Italy (150/1) continue improving but remain the tournament's weakest side. A solitary victory would represent progress; two would be sensational.

Market-by-Market Betting Guide

Championship Winner: - Ireland 6/5 - Solid if not exciting - France 13/8 - Value if you fancy an away upset - England 9/2 - Too short given squad development stage

Grand Slam Winner: - Ireland 5/2 - Achievable but requires away wins in Paris and Murrayfield - France 4/1 - Paris home advantage helps, but Cardiff and Dublin trips await

Triple Crown (England, Scotland, Wales): - Ireland 4/6 - Should handle all three at home or away

Top Try Scorer: - Louis Bielle-Biarrey (France) 7/1 - James Lowe (Ireland) 8/1 - Tommy Freeman (England) 10/1

Lowe's finishing ability and Ireland's try-scoring efficiency make him excellent value.

Tactical Betting Approaches

Handicap Markets: France +3.5 in Dublin (Round 1) often offers value when Ireland face Six Nations rivals. The games are typically tight regardless of outcome.

First Try Scorer: Fullbacks and wings hit the try line with highest frequency. Back Ireland's back three in home fixtures.

Total Points: Ireland matches tend to stay under 40 combined points—their defence is exceptional. Under markets offer consistent value.

My Selections

Championship: Ireland (6/5) - The complete squad, home advantage for key games

Top Try Scorer: James Lowe (8/1 each-way) - Ireland's finishing weapon

Match Bet: Scotland +11.5 vs Ireland in Edinburgh - The Scots always compete at Murrayfield

Grand Slam Special: Ireland to win Grand Slam AND Lowe Top Try Scorer double - 25/1 at selected bookmakers

The Romance of Six Nations

Whatever your bets, savour the Championship. Six Nations weekend transforms Ireland—pubs overflow, families gather, strangers become friends through shared emotion. It's sport at its communal best.

Back your selections, back Ireland, and enjoy the ride. The next six weeks belong to rugby.