Patrick "Paddy" Kavanagh
Senior Betting Strategist & Advisor
After 25 years in the betting industry—15 as an odds compiler and 10 as an analyst—I've seen fortunes won and lost. The difference between survivors and casualties almost always comes down to one thing: bankroll management.
In my 25 years around the betting industry, I've watched countless punters come and go. Some arrived with serious money, expert knowledge, and bulletproof confidence. Most left with nothing but regrets. The pattern I've observed is remarkably consistent: the survivors—those who've been profitably betting for decades—all share one characteristic. It isn't picking winners. It's managing their money.
I'll be blunt: if you can't manage your bankroll, nothing else matters. Not your form analysis, not your insider knowledge, not your lucky hunches. Without proper bankroll management, you're simply waiting to go broke. The only variable is how long it takes.
Your bankroll is the total amount of money you've set aside specifically for betting. This is not your rent money. Not your savings. Not your emergency fund. It's money you can genuinely afford to lose without affecting your quality of life.
I cannot stress this enough: betting with money you cannot afford to lose is the first step toward problem gambling. Before we discuss any strategies, you must honestly assess what amount you can comfortably allocate to betting as an entertainment expense.
For most recreational punters, this might be €50-€200 per month. For more serious bettors with larger disposable incomes, it could be €500-€2,000. The actual amount matters less than the principle: this is your betting bankroll, separate from everything else.
After all these years, I've never found a better approach than fixed percentage staking. The concept is simple: never bet more than a fixed percentage of your current bankroll on any single wager.
For recreational bettors: 1-2% per bet For experienced bettors: 2-3% per bet For professional bettors: 1-5% depending on edge confidence
Let me illustrate with a practical example. Say you've set aside €1,000 as your betting bankroll and you're using 2% stakes. Your first bet would be €20. If you win and your bankroll grows to €1,050, your next bet is €21. If you lose and drop to €980, your next bet is €19.60.
This system does two crucial things: 1. Limits losses during cold streaks - As your bankroll shrinks, so do your bets, extending your survival time 2. Maximises gains during hot streaks - As your bankroll grows, your bets grow proportionally
Let me share something that changed my entire perspective on betting. During my time compiling odds, I ran thousands of simulations on different staking strategies. The results were illuminating.
A punter with a genuine 5% edge over the bookmaker using 10% stakes has approximately a 30% chance of going bust before doubling their bankroll. The same punter using 2% stakes has less than 1% chance of going bust.
Read that again. Even with a winning edge, poor staking can destroy you.
The reason is variance. In betting, short-term results are heavily influenced by luck. You can make excellent decisions and still lose ten bets in a row. It happens. The question is whether your bankroll survives those inevitable downswings.
Here's uncomfortable truth number one: most punters will lose in the long run. The bookmakers' edge, even if it's small on individual bets, compounds over time. If you're betting recreationally for entertainment, accept that your bankroll will likely decrease over time, like paying for any other form of entertainment.
Uncomfortable truth number two: even skilled punters experience significant variance. I've seen professional bettors endure three-month losing streaks despite making mathematically correct decisions. Their bankroll management kept them alive until the edge reasserted itself.
This is why I recommend that recreational bettors view their bankroll as an "entertainment budget" rather than an "investment." You're paying for the excitement, the engagement with sport, the social aspect. Any profits are a bonus, not an expectation.
Never chase losses. This is the single most destructive behaviour in betting. You lose €50 and immediately want to bet €100 to "get it back." This emotional response has wiped out more bankrolls than bad tips ever could.
Track everything. Keep a record of every bet: stake, odds, result, running profit/loss. This isn't just good practice—it forces you to confront reality rather than remember a selective version of your betting history.
Review monthly. At the end of each month, calculate your ROI (Return on Investment). If you're consistently losing, either your approach needs refinement or your expectations need adjustment.
Set stop-losses. Before any betting session, decide on a maximum loss you'll accept. When you hit it, stop. Walk away. Come back tomorrow.
Separate betting from emotion. The best bets are made when you're calm, analytical, and unattached to the outcome. Never bet when you're drunk, angry, or desperate to recover losses.
Over the years, I've developed a framework that helps me maintain perspective:
Survival Level (50% of starting bankroll): If my bankroll drops to half its starting value, I significantly reduce stakes and reassess my entire approach. Something isn't working.
Comfort Level (100-150% of starting bankroll): Normal operations. Continue with standard stake sizes and processes.
Growth Level (200%+ of starting bankroll): If I've doubled my bankroll, I'll withdraw half the profits as "realised gains" while continuing to grow the working bankroll. This locks in success while maintaining exposure.
I've made every mistake in the book during my early years. I've chased losses at 2 AM. I've staked 20% of my bankroll on "certainties" that lost. I've let a winning streak convince me I was invincible, then given it all back in a week of reckless betting.
These experiences taught me that bankroll management isn't just about mathematics—it's about psychology. The system protects you from your worst impulses. It imposes discipline when emotions scream for reckless action.
If you take only one thing from this article, let it be this: betting is a marathon, not a sprint. The punters who've been profitable for decades didn't get there by swinging for the fences on every bet. They got there by making sensible decisions, managing their money conservatively, and surviving long enough for their edge to materialise.
Set your bankroll. Stick to your stakes. Accept the variance. And above all, remember that no single bet—no matter how confident you feel—is worth risking your entire bankroll.
That's how you survive. That's how you potentially thrive. And that's the lesson that took me 25 years to truly understand.
Stay disciplined, stay solvent, and may the odds be in your favour.
Paddy
Senior Betting Strategist & Advisor
Veteran betting strategist with 25+ years of bookmaking and analysis experience.
View Profile
The biggest enemy in betting isn't the bookmaker—it's yourself. After decades watching punters self-destruct, I've identified the psychological traps that destroy bankrolls and how to avoid them.
After 15 years compiling odds for major Irish bookmakers, I'm sharing the insider perspective on how odds are set—and where punters can find genuine value.